英國經濟 還不要太恐慌

儘管經濟數字叫人擔憂，政府還是應該嚴守原訂政策。

用危機來形容似乎太超過了，不過英國的經濟困境也遠超過令人有點不安的程度。剛從衰退的泥沼中爬出來一年後，經濟又再度於去年第四季出現萎縮。這次意外出現的疲弱現象起因於異常的嚴寒氣候，不過也不全然是氣候因素。經濟不振至少應該可以讓民眾免於物價的壓力，但英國人可沒那麼幸運，通貨膨脹在十二月上升到3.7%，進口原物料進一步上揚，再加上這個月增值稅開始增加，很可能會使得通貨膨脹在春天上升到4%。加值稅攀升是必要的，因為要減少預算赤字（預算赤字在這個會計年度會一路上升到GDP的10%）。GDP下滑、通貨膨脹高漲、預算赤字居高不下，這三種不利因素通通一起出現，在富裕國家很罕見，不過並非獨一無二，希臘就深受其害。

壞消息接二連三，看起來似乎有重新思考政策的必要。如果經濟不振，可能禁不起進一步的削減赤字方案，像是預計在四月調漲的國民保險負擔。通膨居高不下的情況下，也令人懷疑央行還適合以寬鬆貨幣政策來對抗財政緊縮的後果嗎？英國央行的利率已經低到不能再低，如果再實施「量化寬鬆」政策，央行的實際行動跟降低通膨的目標不就越拉越遠？

雖然數字不好看，不過應該不會導致政府更改原訂政策。儘管擔憂難免，不過經濟情況已經比財政部長George Osborne六月端出預算計畫時所預估的強勁許多，通膨會在一年內趨緩，生產衰退可能也不會持續很久。嚴寒氣候導致飯店、餐廳、機場、休閒中心沒有消費者上門，營建工程也停工。英國的統計學家估計，要是沒有出現惡劣天候，GDP可能會疲乏不振，不過這種說法尚在未定之天。根據商界的調查，經濟的確是減緩，不過仍然在成長。復甦過程中出現熄火現象，並不罕見。美國經濟去年也減緩，然後才再度恢復活力，英國從上一波衰退中復甦時也經歷過一兩季的萎縮。

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